TSX Stock Market Update

This week were looking at one of the great white north best index or better put the stock markets in Canada. With all the rim news lately it’s drawn more attention to the TSX and we today we’ll take live TSX prices and give you our opinion of where or what the market may do

As always I love to look at the markets technically as that is my way of trading and assessing risk. This is just how I see the market and what trends we can take advantage of. The trend is your friend.  Let’s start at looking at the longer time frame to see what macro trends are in place or changing.

Let’s start with our horizontal line of support and resistance. The TSX just recently broke though long time resistance at the 12,750 level. You can see that this level was support way back in December of 2010 again in June of 2011 and finally broken through to the downside in August of that same year, since that time we have only managed to get to that level in March of last year and then falling back down. We have now broken through but the TSX has risen just over four percent in less than three months. Keep this in mind as we continue.

Continuing our stock market update we’ll go a little closer and look at the daily time frame to see if there are any good opportunities to initiate new positions.

When I look at the TSX Daily chart is see 100 point levels, like at the ACC. This is a very technical market when you can identify levels of support and resistance at even number price points,

Like:

12,500 – support

12,600 – support

12,700(ish) – Support

12,800  – Support

12,900 Resistance

So knowing that and seeing that the TSX closed as 12768 at the time of writing this, We’re at the perfect time of sit on your hands and wait to see what is tested first, support or resistance.

 

TSX Today | Enter the Resistance

Do you like to buy at tops or area’s of resistance? I didn’t think so..

So on Today’s TSX chart ($TSX) I’d like to point out where we are in the markets. The chart looks like we’re picking up strength as we come into the later months of the year. Although I did not draw it you can see a rising support line and if had been drawn you could see a triangles which are typical for break outs.

Now that doesn’t mean that the TSX will break out above the 11,900 mark and jump up to the 12,300 level but it may be in the works. right now though is not a time to open long positions. either wait for a pull back to the 11,700 area or the now rising 50DMA or wait for the breakout and re-tracement to the 11900 level.

Today’s TSX post is just a short one to help you visualize and understand what positions should be avoided right now.

TSX Today

WTI Oil Price Charts | A Canadian Commodity

As a Canadian it’s important for me to understand we are a commodities based economy, Hence the price of the WTI is important to me two fold. One as a consumer and user of oil and also as a Canadian citizen. Looking at this $WTIC  oil chart it’s both good from the consumer side but bad as a an economic indicator. I pay less (hopefully) at the pump but our export value diminishes.

Looking at the ($WTIC) weekly chart below you can see that in the past five weeks there has been a dramatic drop in the price of oil. it’s also apparent that the next level of support is still another five dollars away. You can also see it in the stochastic level too as the last time it was this low on a weekly basis was back in July (same time-ish) before 45 dollar run.

As a trader it is an important time to look at these levels and look for ancillary trades like Suncor

$WTIC--Weekly-Chart

$WTIC Weekly Chart

TSX Today – Finding Support

When you’re trading of investing you always want to find high probability entry points. Today we look at the TSX ($TSX) to see where the next opportunity will come from.

In this chart you can see that there are two lines converging on one point. One support and one resistance. Typically these areas turn out to be great entries. That doesn’t mean you go and buy around the 11K area once it gets there. These even number areas tend to be consolidation zones until either the bear or the bulls can gain traction. This means that right now you should have your long and short list ready for either the break down or break out.

Seasonally the TSX does tend to have a late August rally into the fall months, this is simply based on commodities and their seasonality. I think the likely scenario is we get down to the 11K mark buy June and we chop around for two months and break out for a rally. So get your shopping list ready and look for stocks that historically really in the late summer months

TSX-Today-5.21.12

TSX-Today-5.21.12

Teck Resources (TCK.B)

 

 

 

Looking at Teck Resources(TCK/B.TO) you can see clear support right at the $48.00 level. As it came down from the recent high of $57.00 it tagged the 200DMA and bounced nicely off of it.

 

I would look for some consolidation around the 54.00 level as there is a some downward pressure from the over head resistance line which started in early February.

 

If the stock can not break the recent $57.00 high look for another push to a higher low of $48.50-$49.00 as a consolidation play until we break that 57 do not expect challenge to the early Jan highs of $64.00

 

Be sure to check out our Top Canadian Dividend Stock Performers