We’re going to provide video’s along with our traditional SP 500 charts and outlines so that you get the best experience possible. This is the first video coming out for the SP 500 futures so we encourage you to leave your feedback and suggestions on what you would like to see for future videos. Not enough charts, stock specific requests, You’re the boss. Light econimic data will have traders looking at earnings this week as catalysts so keep an eye out for those to move the markets
As you can see in this SP500 Futures chart we have had a nice upward channel to trade in with higher lows showing us support and higher highs showing us when to take profits. Now, as I have point out in this chart we are quickly approaching an strong area of resistance in the S&P 500 at the 1410-1420 level.
Not only do we have a rising 50 and 200 day moving average to act as support on any pull back but also the implied support trend line as well. I would anticipate to see the SP500 rise to that 1410-20 area and drop down as people who went long in April and May will be looking to get their money back…assuming their poor traders and did not use stops. Yes there are a lot of those and you need to think about people who do not trade as intelligently as you and I do.
If you do not have any open positions right now I would suggest waiting for a test of support which will be around the 1357-58 area and then look to get long for a possible break out of the 1420 area to which the market would have open territory.
Considering the market does break out the next level of resistance would be at the 1440 which we had a high of back in 2008 and then a 10 yr high of 1576. It seems weird to think we could be back to these levels but for a world market with anemic growth ahead I feel a sideways trend would be expected.
Either way use your stops and stick to your trading plans and you’ll do fine. I would start to look for stocks that are at support and may bounce as the market moves higher.
If you trade the S&P 500 futures or any related equity like the SPX or SPY then this quick chart will help you to realize that the bears haven’t been able to push us bulls down past support. I would look for some consolidation at the top of the range and the recent company earnings will push us to the top of the range but I doubt over it.Until there is a clear definition in tax rebates and laws there will be money on the side lines.
It looks like the S&P 500 Returns for the Q2 with Europe closing higher and better than expected manufacturing numbers and the market is reflecting tat in the current ten point gain today. There is still a lot of chatter about where is or when will the pullback? Technically speaking April tends to be a seasonally bullish month and most technicians will take today’s start to the quarter as a buy signal.
When you take a look at the chart you can see that there has been four to five pull backs in the S&P 500 since December. I feel people are looking for larger pullbacks so they can make back what they lost sitting on the side and the market is not giving them the size of pullback needed to get them in the market. Each subsequent pullback keeps getting smaller and smaller.
The biggest pullback was back in December and was fifty points when the market hit 1250 and went down to test the 1200 support. since then there hasn’t been that big of a pull back and the biggest point deduction from the market has been half that when the market pulled back from 1375 to just under 1350.
If you’re still on the sideline I would recommend not looking for a 40-50 point pullback and revise your expectations on what percentage gain you attain since you have been timid and on the sidelines.
The next catalyst will be S&P listed companies as they announce earnings and with the conservatively revised expectations is quite possible to see most companies to beat earning but slightly miss on other performance metrics
This week in the S&P 500 futures we saw a nice rise on Tuesday due to the US economy new and strong bank news as JP Morgan raised it’s dividend which has increased the sentiment that the US banking sector is now recovered and starting to become more profitable. This was compounded when the fed announced that only four of the nineteen banks tested for stress level failed. On Tuesday morning the initial raise in the market was due to exceedingly good retail sales despite the European crisis
All of this news has helped reign in the VIX and on Tuesday the VIX dropped to the 14.80 and has limited the opportunity for high frequency trading bots to have opportunities for quick trades.
This past Wednesday we had a mix market after a bug up day on Tuesday as Commodities markets were in focus more so gold which dropped fifty dollars in price down to 1636 at the close. This was also on the back of a stronger dollar Only Twenty percent of the S&P 500 sectors were in the green on Tuesday which presented some great buying opportunities in markets that have been on a tear lately.
On a separate note Goldman Sachs former executive Greg Smith wrote a piece that was all the news on Wednesday as he was quoted saying that the Goldmans culture had become toxic and that they were no longer focused on serving their clients but more about lining their own pockets first.
Take it how you will but there has always been a dagger in the back of Goldman and to me it’s the big guy in the room getting all the attention for reasons no needed.
Technically speaking Wednesday at the close it looks like will be the start of a bull flag, we are seeing it in other stocks and this is just a replication of those small stock patterns.